After months of an election campaign, surging, the French have finally decided to qualify Emmanuel Macon and Marine Le Pen for the second round of the presidential elections. Analyze today’s rapidly the consequences of the victory of the first or the second on the euro, on the 7th of may next.
To begin with, Emmanuel Macron came top of the polls with 23.8% of the votes, Marine Le Pen second with 21.4 per cent. This marks a real change in the French policy since the years 50, the left and right clashed inexorably with each election. Now, this is no longer the case. Macron and The Pen are not, in fact, no representatives of these two great currents.
Future of the euro if E. Macron wins
Judging by the reaction of the foreign exchange market to the results of the first round, it seems that the bulls of the euro could charge if Emmanuel Macron will be the new president of France.
If it is positioned as an independent candidate throughout the campaign, he embodies a certain continuity of the current government of which he was part for two years. For investors in the forex market, it is something rather reassuring continuity. The candidate of” Running ” is also a convinced european, which should also reassure investors in the region.
Future of the euro if Mr. Le Pen wins
If Marine Le Pen seems, according to opinion polls, accused a certain delay in relation to E. Macron, this does not mean that it is out of the race, quite the contrary. The referendum on the brexit and the election of Donald Trump have, recently, shown that the polls could be wrong.
In case of victory of Marine Le Pen, the euro could significantly backward compared to its counterparts in the forex. The latter embodies, in effect, the eurosceptic par excellence. She has also promised to organize a national referendum on the accession of France to the european Union in the six months that follow his election. The return of procrastination related to a possible “frexit” in preparation, therefore, could greatly weigh on the single currency.
Before the second round scheduled for 7 may next year, the euro could continue to benefit from the growth that it currently enjoys. The polls that will be published and the d-day approaching, however, could change things differently.