On Thursday, Australia will publish the figures of its labor market for the month of April. Because it leads to typically the hot tub on the dollar, AUD and other currencies of the forex, here is our usual guide to trading.
Back on the publication of the month of march
Last month, figures from the australian labour market have been positive on the whole. 60 900 new jobs have been created while analysts expected a rebound of only 20 000. This is the sixth consecutive monthly increase and the rate of growth the fastest since September 2015.
Despite these positive results, the unemployment rate, however, remained at 5.9%, its highest level since January 2016. The increase in the participation rate of 64.6% to 64.8% is probably responsible for this stagnation of the unemployment rate.
The details of the report reveal, in addition, are the full-time jobs, or jobs of best quality, which have compensated with their rebound of 74 000 a decrease of 13 600 part-time jobs.
Finally, the last good news of this report, total employment and the total size of the workforce who have reached their highest levels ever recorded last march.
On the foreign exchange market, the australian dollar has logically progressed compared to its counterparts. In this way he took 56 pips to the dollar USD 57 pips for the japanese yen and 163 pips on the euro. In the absence of a catalyst more importantly the australian dollar has kept its gains throughout the day.
What can we expect for the month of April ?
For the month of April, analysts expect the unemployment rate to stagnate at 5.9%, and employment gains slow down to reach a small 4 500.
The indicators relating to the labour market reveal the following :
According to ANZ, job ads rose 1.4% in April after rebounding 0.8 percent in march, and the annual figures show an increase of 10.1%, a figure much higher than last year (7.1 per cent).
The PMI index on manufacturing rose 1.7%. This is the seventh consecutive month that the index rose. It confirms, as well, the expansion of the sector.
The index of performance of the construction increased for the third consecutive month in April. It is situated at 51.9. The employment component of the sector remains, however, a little lagging behind.
The index of the performance of the services shows an increase of 1.3 points. It is located at 53. As the construction sector, the employment component shows some weaknesses.
Finally, the monthly survey of businesses, NAB shows a continuous improvement of the conditions of employment. The component has also increased by 8 points.
Negotiate the event on the forex
If you are planning to negotiate the release of employment figures for australian so we advise you to be particularly attentive to the details of the report. More specifically, look for the strength of the full-time jobs added as well as the growth of wages and hours of work. Keep in mind that the full-time jobs tend to support more consumption spending.
An increase in the number of full-time job consistently will cause a new flight to the dollar AUD. A significant increase in part-time jobs will likely reverse.
Finally, if we refer to the price action of the last month, we see that a large part of the reaction of the Aussie is focused on the publication, with the possibility of extending his trend intraday in the absence of other economic catalysts.